April '23
Intelligence leaks, mate switching, and the viability of Airbnb
The Eternal City, 1937 by Peter Blume (1906–1992)
The News
US National Security Leak
I’ve been following (though very briefly) the US national security leak that happened this past week and find the following points of nominal interest:
Apparently the US was pressuring Jordan to support Ukraine? But Jordan was hesitant given they don’t want to piss off the Chinese?
The US gave Israel the ultimatum “either you help Ukraine develop iron dome technology or we won’t support a strike on Iran if/when they develop nukes”
This seems like blackmail to most precipitous degree?
Apparently Egypt was trying to sell rockets to Russia?
Given we are technically allies with Egypt, this is essentially them going behind our back?
The leaked documents make it seem like Ukraine isn’t faring as well in the war with Russia as the media makes it seem
US intelligence officials also indicate in the documents that they are skeptical the war can/will end favorably for Ukraine
The fact that the individual responsible for leaking the documents is a 21 year old Air National Guardsman makes me think this sort of classified information is far too readily available. What ever happened to security clearance? Are intelligence servers even password protected at this point?
ChatGPT: Not Entirely Factual
I’m subscribed to a tech blogger named Benedict Evans and over the past month this is the piece that caught my eye the most:
If you ask ChatGPT factual questions, you can’t trust what you get. In this case, it invented an entirely non-existent sexual assault allegation against a law professor, complete with (non-existent) Washington Post story. Also of note - the professor, since he’s apparently a somewhat controversial figure, assumes that this must be something to do with his politics. Since all LLMs do this all the time about anyone and anything, there’s no reason to think he’s right, but this is a good illustration of just how hard it is for normal people outside tech (or even inside) to grasp what these systems are doing. They are not answering questions - they're making something that looks like an answer to questions that look like your question. But, can you stop them from libeling people? Article Link
Specifically, this line:
They (AI) are not answering questions - they're making something that looks like an answer to questions
Makes me think that AI “taking over everything” remains a ways off. There is still a need to “audit” the work of an AI engine given its trained on trillions of data points where fact and fiction are one and the same.
Ideas
Temporal Differences in Gestures
I was watching a lecture for my Visual Interfaces class a couple months back and my Professor brought up the idea of “temporal differences in gestures”. The example he gave is that if you were to ask a Gen X-r to imitate using a phone, they would move their hand up to their ear. But if you were to ask a Gen Z-r to do the same thing they would hold their palm out in front of them and tap their finger against it. The point he was trying to make is that every age group, society, etc has a unique difference in the way they understand and gesture things — which in turn makes it really hard to train computers + cameras to interpret this myriad of potentialities.
“Mate Switching” (aka trade-in and trade-up :p)
I was listening to Joe Rogan interview David Buss (Berkeley/Harvard/UTexas evolutionary psychologist) on my drive back from Flagstaff to St. Paul and found the entire subject of “mate switching” incredibly fascinating. Buss goes into the “how” and “why” of adulatory and examines both the psychological and biological basis for which this tends to occur (I, personally, find the biological explanations the most thought provoking). Here are my notes from listening to the podcast and reading Buss’s research paper on the subject:
The Statistics
Lifelong monogamy does not characterize the primary mating pattern of humans
American divorce rates have hovered in the 50% range over the past several decades, and remarriage is common
85% of American adults have experienced at least one romantic breakup
Ala, breaking up with one partner and re-mating with another —mate switching—may more accurately characterize the common, perhaps the primary, mating strategy of humans
Among married couples, estimates of infidelity rates are estimated to be 26% for women and 50% for men
An estimated 79% of women who cheat fall in love (in contrast to only a third of men)
Most women who cheat are unhappy in their current relationship (seems like a no-brainer)
But the kicker is that when men cheat, only half reported that they were “unhappy in their existing relationship”
The Explanations Given
Dual Mating Strategy Hypothesis
“Woman's mate preferences shift to more bodily masculine and behaviorally dominant men when ovulating”
TL;DR — women will (on average) tend to find Jason Momoa-esque figures more attractive during the height of their ovulation cycle and this has also been found to correspond with the time (and types of men) women will tend to cheat with
The biological explanation for this is the acquiescence of “good genes” while also retaining “safety” and “care”
Mate Switching Hypothesis
“The mate switching hypothesis provides an alternative explanation for why women have affairs—namely to provide mate insurance, to cultivate backup mates, to assess the viability of a switch, to render the transition back into the mating market easier, or to trade up to a new partner who is less cost-inflicting, more benefit-bestowing, or higher in mate value than their current partner”
I realize this is probably a “touchy” subject (especially for those in a committed relationship at present). I just find the whole subject interesting. Feel free to chastise me in person with your thoughts :D
Buss’s Research Paper: https://labs.la.utexas.edu/buss/files/2013/02/The-Mate-Switching-Hypothesis-FINAL-PUBLISHED-2017.pdf
And podcast link:
On the Reconciliation of Self-Interested Parties
I’ve been slowly making my way through the Federalist Papers the past few months and find them to be very thought provoking. But before going any further — background. The Federalist Papers were a series of periodicals during the time of ratification of the United States Constitution where James Madison, John Jay, and Alexander Hamilton argued why the states should support such a proposal via anonymous publications under the pseudonym “Publius” which is Latin for “of the people” (which I find kinda badass). Thus far, I’ve found Hamilton + Madison to be the most eloquent. Jay argues things too practically.
Anyway, I recently read #10 which was written by James Madison and centers around the question of “how to reconcile citizens with interests contrary to the rights of others or inimical to the interests of the community as a whole”. Here’s my TL;DR to save you some time:
The majority will always remain self-interested. This being the case, human good and private rights always remain at-risk. Ala - pure democracy isn’t the answer. Republican government ensures the self-interested majority cannot trample the private rights of minority factions.
The Viability of Airbnb
I’ve spoken to several friends about this and am of the opinion that Airbnb — and Vrbo by extension — are the way of the future. Sure, my parent’s (and grandparent’s) generation tend to opt for hotel stays when traveling, but from millennials downward no one wants to book a hotel when taking their vacation. Instead, they want to stay somewhere exorbitant, fully furnished, with the makings of a “home” such that they feel comfortable yet “outside their means”; which in my opinion tends to be at the heart of most vacationing spirit.
In summation, the emergence of vacation rentals as a modern day “timeshare” have opened the door to enlivening the stylization only glimpsed through the flash bulbs of movie cameras and the glib filters of your Instagram feed.
Some Literature
